With the ceasefire in Gaza on 19 January 2025 , the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has experienced a dramatic change that brings with it both relief and several pressing problems. Is this ceasefire a short-term measure before tensions flare up again or will it result in long-term stability ?

The consequences of the ceasefire will change power balances , redefine global diplomacy and create new opportunities for important international parties outside of the immediate region.

However , seeking redress for wartime crimes continues to be a significant obstacle. What will happen in Gaza and beyond and how will the world react to this precarious moment ?

Is the ceasefire a temporary break or a step toward permanent peace ?

As the ceasefire provides a much-needed break in the hostilities , past events indicate that these kinds of agreements in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are frequently unstable. The situation on the ground , international pressure and political will are some of the variables that will determine whether this truce succeeds or fails.

There are a number of conceivable outcomes :

Lasting Stability (Difficult but Possible) : With effective international mediation , financial assistance and political concessions, the truce might develop into a long-term peace.

Deep internal conflicts and mistrust , however , present formidable obstacles. If international efforts like the successful Egypt-Israel peace deal of 1979 are repeated and economic support flows through programs like the Abraham Accords, stability might establish itself. However , this path is extremely unpredictable due to the parties’ enmity and long-standing animosities which are shown in the failure of previous negotiations like the Camp David Summit in 2000.

Probably a cold ceasefire : Like the aftermath of the 2021 ceasefire , tensions could continue through sporadic clashes , airstrikes and protests even though large-scale combat may end. A single provocation like clashes at the Al-Aqsa Mosque or a cross-border attack could quickly reignite violenc keeping the region on the brink of instability.

Ceasefire Collapse (Worst Case): A new full-scale conflict in the region could be sparked by regional actors like Hezbollah and Iran-backed militias or by political changes like the return of a more hardline Israeli government or internal power struggles in Gaza akin to Hamas’ 2007 coup against the Palestinian Authority.

Will the ceasefire change the balance of power in the world ?

The ceasefire might rearrange political ties and influence global diplomacy in various ways:

Regional mediators gain influence: Nations that have mediated previous truces such as Qatar and Egypt may improve their diplomatic status. They could gain political and economic benefits like more foreign investment or closer ties with the United States if they are able to successfully mediate long-term talks much like Egypt did with the 1979 Camp David Accords.

Western powers review their role : The U.S. and EU may advocate for new peace initiatives as was the case with the Oslo Accords of 1993 , but if tensions continue , Washington may be under internal pressure to reevaluate military aid to Israel as it was after the Gaza War in 2021 and the EU may take advantage of the opportunity to increase humanitarian efforts as it did in Bosnia after the war.

China and Russia seize diplomatic opportunities: China , which is already mediating peace agreements in the Middle East (such as the reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia) may present itself as an impartial mediator in an effort to counter american hegemony in the area. Using the crisis in Ukraine as a diversion from its isolation on a worldwide scale , Russia may deepen its connections with Iran and Hamas.

Iran’s role under criticism : If the ceasefire reduces the basis for military aid to Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Iran may shift focus either doubling down on proxy fighting in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen or de-escalating to prioritize its nuclear program negotiations.

Who can gain advantage ? The ceasefire’s strategic and economic potential Beyond the humanitarian relief , the ceasefire could create economic and strategic openings for various nations , influencing trade , diplomacy and regional investments :

Gulf states gain regional power : Post-war rehabilitation in Gaza might help strengthen the diplomatic position of countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates who have pursued closer relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords. They might improve business relations with both Israel and Palestine if they take the lead in infrastructure and relief initiatives , much like the UAE did when it rebuilt Mosul , Iraq.

Western security and defense sectors Adjust :As combat ceases Western arms producers may turn their attention from short-term hostilities to long-term military development. Similar to NATO’s shift in focus following significant Middle Eastern conflicts, nations like the U.S., France and Germany important suppliers of Israeli defense technology may move their priority to cybersecurity partnerships or intelligence-sharing agreements.

Gains in stability for neighboring economies : Jordan and Lebanon which have been severely impacted by refugee flows from Gaza and the West Bank may experience an improvement in commerce and a decrease in displacement. Similar to its previous energy agreements with the Palestinian Authority , Jordan may deepen its economic ties with Palestine if the peace is maintained. But these nations run the prospect of continued security and economic pressure if volatility persists.

China increases its economic footprint: Similar to its investments in Africa and South Asia through the Belt and Road Initiative , China may use the ceasefire to o?er development assistance or negotiate trade agreements in the Middle East , given its growing interest in infrastructure projects in the region. Beijing may pose a threat to Western involvement in post-war reconstruction if it establishes itself as a major economic partner.

How can international social justice expose and prosecute Gaza’s atrocities? 

The ceasefire presents a vital chance to record and hold responsible for the horrors that had taken place throughout the war. There are a number of international legal options available to guarantee justice however there are still obstacles to overcome:

Involvement of the International Criminal Court (ICC): Similar to its work in Darfur and the Democratic Republic of the Congo , the ICC could look into war crimes perpetrated by both sides.

The ICC may issue arrest warrants in the event that it discovers proof of targeted attacks on civilians , the use of illegal weapons or the destruction of civilian infrastructure. But political opposition particularly from strong nations like the US and Israel could make these initiatives more difficult.

United Nations investigations: The UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) could launch independent investigations following precedents like the 2014 Gaza conflict report. Its findings may lead to UN resolutions or further calls for accountability. The challenge , however , lies in the council’s reliance on member states with certain countries using veto power to prevent significant action. – Documenting atrocities through NGOs and media: As demonstrated by groups like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International , humanitarian organizations and independent media have been instrumental in capturing war crimes. These organizations might o?er vital proof for both international pressure and judicial action. Their access to conflict areas may be limited though and states that reject the data may cast doubt on their conclusions.

⇒ The pursuit of legal accountability faces numerous challenges including political opposition and restricted access in conflict areas even though the ceasefire offers a vital window for justice.

Nevertheless , consistent international pressure and solid documentation could guarantee that those at fault are held accountable.

A critical crossroads : The Gaza truce is a big challenge as well as a short-lived opportunity. Although it offers a unique opportunity for regional stability , humanitarian assistance and diplomatic advancement , its long-term effects will rely on sustained international backing , the pursuit of justice and genuine political commitment from all parties.

The entire globe will be curious to see if this is the beginning of a new chapter or if it is merely a brief break before the next wave of violence.

Written by Roukaya berbeche